In brief

On March 12th the prime minister, Ariel Henry, announced his intention to step down, following nearly two weeks of violence and protests. Mr Henry has said that he will cede power to a transitional council once an interim prime minister has been named, which should restore a modicum of stability. However, near-term prospects for Haiti's political, social and economic stability remain dire. The country faces a serious humanitarian crisis. Earlier plans to deploy a UN-backed mission to Haiti have run into delays, and a force is now unlikely to arrive before the second half of 2024, if the Henry government's plan is maintained. The country's powerful criminal gangs joined together in their efforts to oust Mr Henry; it remains unclear how the interim authorities will attempt to rein in their influence and restore stability in a more meaningful way. As a result, we expect political instability to remain rife throughout our 2024-25 forecast period. Against this troubled backdrop, elections will remain a distant prospect and rebuilding hollowed-out institutions will be a medium-term challenge. Moreover, the political crisis will exacerbate Haiti's dire humanitarian and health crises, which will take years to resolve. Given the delay in deploying an international intervention force, we now forecast zero growth in 2024. Growth will resume in 2025, but five consecutive years of contraction in 2019-23 have left significant scarring on the economy.